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Monday, July 9, 2012

Punk Economics 5: China crashes, US Slows & Euro Crisis Far From Over!

The terrible trinity of a China harder-than-soft landing, a European depression/crisis, and now a US slowdown are all tied together in a burdensome bow by Punk Economics' David McWilliams in his latest must-watch macro clip. While people apparently still worship at the alter of retail, the Irishman notes that they are missing these three oncoming trucks. From the Politburo paniccing as "since dropping its Maoist fundamentals, the only legitimacy it has is growth" with "prosperity (not equality) for all" the latest slogan as he rhetorically asks "what's the Chinese for 'it's the economy stupid" as he notes that despite two rate cuts in a month, the problem is too much capacity (so building more simply makes things worse) - pushing commodities down. He rotates to the US where Obama's election-critical recovery is fading away noting the current impotence of the Fed to fix things in the real world. As the much-hyped recovery evaporates in the US, the euphoria of the latest EU Summit has vanished and McWilliams dives into the details of the desperate to-and-from between Germany and its neighbors (adding that France is economically all mouth and no trousers) "either Germany pays for everyone or the Euro falls apart" as he explains the dilemma facing massive refinancing needs of Italy and Spain with little to no growth and illiquidity - with German savings the ultimate arbiter (though poltically impossible given Merkel's election next year). "Even if the Germans paid for everything right now... it still wouldn't solve the core competiveness problem" leaving the world indeed stuck between a German rock and a global hard place. Eight minutes well spent for a succinct world view - and its not encouraging.

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