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Thursday, February 9, 2012

It's All Greek to Me - Greece on roller coaster heading straight down

Blogman's Notes: 

The Greek Debt Drama has become like Homer's Odyssey with more episodes than one can count. On Sunday the Greek finance minister warned that there were only hours left to find a solution to an unsolvable problem. Those hours came and went as has happened countless times already in this Tragi-Comedy that would have made Socrates drink his hemlock long before he was ordered to do, nothing happened as usual. So more hours and days were allotted as everyone pretended to find a solution to an unsolvable problem. The way events are playing out with lies, lies and more lies coming on an hourly basis is comical but there is a real tragedy developing for the Greek people and the nation of Greece. Greece is being Austerrorized into 3rd world status by the international banksters that are more ruthless than Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot combined! As the rest of the world watches this Tragi-Comedy with casual nonchalance, the Middle Classes in these yet comfortable countries better be warned; for their turn will surely come, sooner or later! The following excellent analysis is from

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Somehow the anger of the sex pistols, the sound of boots marching in the background, seem right to me today.
Greek Industrial Production dropped 11.3% in December.  The unemployment rate jumped to 20.9%, up from 18.2%.
The charade of negotiations and a bailout can go.  Some deal is likely to be announced.  I’m not even sure it will be relevant by the March 20th bond maturity deadline.
The economy is getting worse, fast.
People are getting angry, fast.
The “force feeding of austerity” and plan after plan that is really just a focus on banks at the expense of the people is getting old.
While we wait for whatever plan is about to be announced, to some fanfare and some small pop in stock futures, the markets are mixed.
CDS on European financials is weak again.  Senior Fins are 9 bps wider.  Commerzbank senior and sub are both about 20 bps wider (on top of a big sell off yesterday).
So far Main and IG are tame and only 1 bp wider, but it was the move in financials that briefly spooked the market yesterday, so keep an eye on that.  The weakness in financials seems surprising given all the talk (and hopes and dreams) of another massive LTRO.
New AT&T 10 year came at 105 and is trading right around that level.  Not a big pop.  It may be that the market has hit the point where the new issue concession shrunk too much, and too many people are playing for the quick flip rather than needing the bonds.  The new issues have generally performed well, but we may have hit a saturation point.
In the meantime back to waiting for that imminent announcement out of Brussels or Athens.

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