Forget about probabilities and statistics and measures of so-called leading indicators (such as the stock market which does not lead), and the yield curve that is useless when zero-bound. Instead, simply focus on data from around the globe, especially new manufacturing orders.
The global economy skirted closer to stagnation at the end of the second quarter. Growth slowed in the service sector and manufacturing production fell back into contraction territory.Read More:
The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – slipped to 50.3 in June, down further from February's 12- month peak of 55.4.